Presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), Former President John Dramani Mahama, has cautioned the NDC against being complacent due to the opinion polls that have predicted victory for the party. He charged the NDC to protect every single vote during the elections to ensure that all the favorable polls materialize. To him, the NDC is winning the elections because all the credible opinion polls have projected a victory for the main opposition party.

Speaking in Gbintri of the Gambaga Nalerigu constituency of the North East Region on Wednesday, October 2, Mr Mahama said that “All the regions I have been to, have given us the assurance that they are going change the government on 7th December 2024 and bring the NDC back to come and continue the good work we were doing when we had the reigns of government.

“All the credible opinion polls have predicted that NDC is going to win. And so because of that the NPP and government have started publishing fake opinion polls. Opinion polls have no methodology, Opinion polls are where you cannot find the people who did the research. And so, ignore all those fake opinion polls everything indicates and every credible institution, economic intelligence Unit, Fitch Solutions, Global Info Analytics and every proper, credible opinion polls shows that NDC is going to win the election. But of course, we must not be complacent. We must protect every single person’s vote.”

His comment comes after the final field poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics, nearly two months before December 2024 said Mr Mahama maintains his lead in the poll with 51.1% of the votes.

The vice president and the flagbearer of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) is on 37.3%, Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen (AKK), an independent candidate on 4.1%, Nana Kwame Bediako, an independent candidate also on 6.2% and others on 1.3% that is the weighted committed voters’ model.

However, using the likely voters’ model (unweighted), JDM is on 49.3%, DMB, 35.9%, AKK, 3.9%, NKB, 6.0%, others, 1.4% and undecided, 3.5%.

The survey noted that the election is unlikely to go into a runoff as the year average of the poll show JDM on 53%, DMB 36%, AKK, 7%, Bediako, 3% and others 1%.

Voter apathy, it said, is expected to be one of the challenges for the governing NPP as 16% of voters who say they will not vote are their supporters, 3% are NDC, 38% are floating voters, 4% are other parties’ voters and 39% are those who declined to reveal their party affiliations. Overall, 4.4% of respondents said they will not vote in the election.

Crucial in winning the December elections will which of the candidates receives greater support in his base as well as winning the votes of floating (independent) voters. The poll suggest while DMB receives 88% support of his base, JDM attract 96%, +8 points advantage. Among the floating voters, JDM leads DMB 54% to 23%, a 31 points advantage. JDM also has 18 points lead among voters who refused to disclose their party affiliations.

The poll shows a significant decline in support for DMB among Muslims, a demography his campaign has targeted. DMB dropped by nearly 4% in October 2024 compared to July 2024.

The poll also shows that among first-time voters, JDM now leads with 46%, DMB, 38%, AKK, 5%, NKB, 10% and others 1%. JDM and DMB were tied on 41% apiece in the July 2024 poll.

The poll also shows that among those who voted for Nana Akufo Addo in the 2020 election, 19% have switched their votes to JDM, 5% to AKK, 5% to NKB and 1% to other candidates with DMB retaining the remaining 70% choosing to stick with DMB. However, in crucial regions of Greater Accra, 20% of voters who voted for Nana Addo in the 2020 election have switched to JDM and in the Central region, it is 37%.

John Mahama now leads in twelve (12) regions, up by one (1) compared to the July poll, Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti and Volta. Dr Bawumia leads in the Ashanti region, Eastern, Ahafo and North East regions. The Bono region is new in JDM’s column according to the poll, a situation caused by the resurgence of JDM and AKK in the region. The ruling party is struggling to achieve its target of 85% in the Ashanti region as Nana Kwame Bediako surges. DMB remains on 66%, JDM, 22%, AKK, 4% and NKB, 7% and others, 1%.

“Nana Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten are also surging in the Eastern region, as the duo now share 19% of the votes, DMB on 42% and JDM, 36% and others, 2%. The poll also shows that JDM is outperforming his parliamentary candidates in 56 out of the 111 constituencies and trailing the parliamentary candidates in 55 constituencies. However, for Dr Bawumia, he is outperforming his parliamentary candidates in 32 constituencies but trailing the parliamentary candidates in 79 constituencies, providing further evidence of the impact Alan and Bediako could be having on the ruling party’s chances in the December elections.

“Economy, jobs and education remain the top issues for voters according to the poll as 70% of the issues cited as important was the economy, followed by jobs, 62% and Education, 48%. The current economic conditions of voters will have greater influence on the outcome of the December elections according the poll as it is cited 55% of the time by voters, followed by past performance of the political parties, 40%, credibility of the candidates, 34%, parties manifestoes, 28%, galamsey fight, 9% and other factors, 8%.

“On the various manifestoes, the public favors NDC manifesto by a margin of +14 points compared to the NPP’s which has net favourability rating of +6 points. On the direction of the country, 62% say Ghana is headed in the wrong direction compared to 31% who said right direction and 7% did not have an opinion.

Majority of all voters except NPP voters believe Ghana is headed in the wrong direction. 88% of NDC voters believe it is headed in the wrong direction, it is 74% for floating voters, 76% of other parties and 65% those who did not disclose their party affiliations. 32% of NPP voters believe Ghana is headed in the wrong direction, majority, 64% believe it is headed in the right direction.

For the president, 36% of voters approve of his job performance, 59% disapprove and 4% did not have an opinion. 49% of voters rate the governing party’s overall performance as poor/very poor, 30% rate it as very good/good, 9% as excellent and 12% as average,” the survey said.

ByLaud Narte

The Effutu Constituency branch of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) has officially petitioned Nenyin Ghartey VII, the Paramount Chief of the Effutu Traditional Area, over what they describe as escalating political abuses and electoral irregularities in the constituency. In the petition, the NDC highlighted a series of issues that they believe threaten the peace and fairness of the upcoming elections scheduled for December 2024.

These include the removal of their party billboards, the alleged leakage of sensitive nomination documents, and discrepancies in the voters’ register.

Billboard Destruction Allegations

The NDC accused the Municipal Chief Executive (MCE) for Effutu, Zubairu Kassim, of leading a group of New Patriotic Party (NPP) youth in an illegal operation to tear down their billboards. One of the billboards, which featured the image of former President John Dramani Mahama, was pulled down near Klimovic Junction in Winneba. The party claims this act of vandalism was followed by a midnight operation targeting additional NDC billboards across the constituency. The NDC expressed concern that these actions by the MCE and his party members could provoke retaliation and lead to conflict between political supporters in the area.

Leaked Nomination Information

The party also raised the alarm over claims made by the NPP’s parliamentary candidate, Alexander Afenyo-Markin, who reportedly disclosed that he had access to the nomination documents of both the NDC parliamentary candidate and an independent candidate during a radio interview on Osimpa FM. Afenyo-Markin allegedly threatened to take legal action against individuals who endorsed the independent candidate, raising concerns within the NDC about how such sensitive electoral information had been leaked.

The NDC demanded an investigation into how their opponent gained access to these confidential documents, which should only be under the custody of the Electoral Commission.

Voter Transfer Discrepancies

Another significant issue raised in the petition involves a discrepancy of 3,009 votes in the Effutu voters’ register. According to the NDC, during the recent voter transfer period, data provided by the Electoral Commission’s headquarters showed a bloated figure compared to the daily reports issued to political parties by the local district office. The NDC argued that this discrepancy casts doubt on the accuracy of the voters’ register and could undermine the credibility of the election results.

NDC’s Demands

The Effutu NDC is calling for a response to their previous petition regarding the voter transfer discrepancies. They are also requesting a full-scale investigation into the leakage of the nomination documents and urging the paramount chief to intervene in calling the MCE and the district officer of the Electoral Commission to order.

The NDC emphasized that failure to address these issues could lead them to take legitimate actions to protect their interests in the constituency. Given Nenyig Ghartey VII’s role as the traditional administrative head and Chancellor of the University of Education, Winneba, the NDC expressed confidence that his intervention would help prevent any escalation of political tension in the constituency ahead of the elections.

Source: Adomonline.com  

Ahmed M. Gedel Writes:
Deputy Zongo Caucus Coordinator, USA

As the cornerstone of democracy, elections demand robust safeguards to ensure their integrity. To achieve this, the Inter-Party Advisory Committee(IPAC) must establish a bipartisan Election Results Monitoring Center, distinct from the traditional strong room.

This center will serve as a beacon of transparency, fostering trust among political parties and the electorate.

The Limitations of the Strong Room
The strong room, often shrouded in secrecy, has raised concerns about its potential for manipulation. It is imperative that political parties reject this outdated approach and advocate for a Transparent and Accountable Room (TAR). By doing so, they will demonstrate their commitment to openness and fairness.

Transparent and Accountable Room (TAR): A New Standard
The TAR should be strategically located at the conference center, in close proximity to the national election results collation center at Independence Square. This setup ensures seamless communication and real-time updates. To further enhance transparency:
▪Regional Election Results Display: Post and display regional election results on scoreboards for public viewing, promoting accountability and inclusivity.

▪Real-Time Updates: Utilize digital platforms to provide instantaneous updates, allowing citizens to track the electoral process.

▪Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration: Foster partnerships among election officials, civil society organizations, and law enforcement to ensure a secure and credible process.

By embracing this innovative approach, IPAC can significantly enhance the credibility and integrity of elections, setting a new standard for democratic governance.

Ahmed M. Gedel
Former NDC Technical Advisor on Biometric and NDC Rep@ IPAC & UNDP-Ghana